Turkish freshwaters as a case of rising invasion risk of aquarium fishes under climate change

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dc.contributor.authorYogurtcuoglu, Baran
dc.contributor.authorTarkan, Ali Serhan
dc.contributor.authorEkmekci, F. Guler
dc.contributor.authorKirankaya, Serife Gulsun
dc.contributor.authorKurtul, Irmak
dc.contributor.authorOzcan, Derya
dc.contributor.authorVilizzi, Lorenzo
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-01T11:39:55Z
dc.date.available2026-07-01T11:39:55Z
dc.date.issued2025
dc.departmentDüzce Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractClimate change is expected to increase the invasiveness of non-native aquarium fish, yet national assessments rarely consider future warming conditions. We screened 46 popular ornamental freshwater fish imported into T & uuml;rkiye for invasion risk. Each species received a Basic Risk Assessment (BRA) score under current conditions and an adjusted Climate Change Assessment (CCA) score under regional warming scenarios. The BRA classified 12 species (26.1%) as high risk, while under the CCA, this rose to 16 species (34.8%). Four species, namely goldfish Carassius auratus, common carp Cyprinus carpio, vermiculated sailfin catfish Pterygoplichthys disjunctivus, and leopard pleco P. gibbiceps, reached very high-risk status. Climate change adjustment resulted in an increase in the basic scores for 34 species, a decrease for three, and no change for nine. Seven species achieved the maximum increment of + 12 under predicted climate change conditions. Our results show that marginal habitats, such as thermal springs and effluent canals, could become suitable for these species, even as water stress in Central Anatolia threatens both native and invasive species. We recommend dynamic, climate-aware risk protocols, combined with empirical validation via field and eDNA monitoring, and a precautionary 'whitelist' import system based on robust risk screening protocols as applied in this study.
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/s41598-025-21584-4
dc.identifier.issn2045-2322
dc.identifier.issue1
dc.identifier.orcid0000-0003-2154-4341
dc.identifier.orcid0000-0001-8628-0514
dc.identifier.orcid0000-0002-9522-7050
dc.identifier.pmid41152423
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-105020188246
dc.identifier.scopusqualityN/A
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-21584-4
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12684/23544
dc.identifier.volume15
dc.identifier.wosWOS:001604675000017
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ1
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.indekslendigikaynakPubMed
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherNature Portfolio
dc.relation.ispartofScientific Reports
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.snmzKA_WOS_20260623
dc.subjectAquatic Invasions
dc.subjectOrnamental Fish
dc.subjectPet Trade
dc.subjectAquatic Species Invasiveness Screening Kit
dc.subjectThermal Springs
dc.titleTurkish freshwaters as a case of rising invasion risk of aquarium fishes under climate change
dc.typeArticle

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