Trophic Interactions Are Key to Understanding the Effects of Global Change on the Distribution and Functional Role of the Brown Bear

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dc.authoridLucas, Pablo Miguel/0000-0003-4517-9748
dc.authoridPenteriani, Vincenzo/0000-0002-9333-7846
dc.authoridSelva, Nuria/0000-0003-3389-201X;
dc.contributor.authorLucas, Pablo M.
dc.contributor.authorThuiller, Wilfried
dc.contributor.authorTalluto, Lauren
dc.contributor.authorPolaina, Ester
dc.contributor.authorAlbrecht, Joerg
dc.contributor.authorSelva, Nuria
dc.contributor.authorDe Barba, Marta
dc.date.accessioned2025-10-11T20:48:13Z
dc.date.available2025-10-11T20:48:13Z
dc.date.issued2025
dc.departmentDüzce Üniversitesien_US
dc.description.abstractBiotic interactions are expected to influence species' responses to global changes, but they are rarely considered across broad spatial extents. Abiotic factors are thought to operate at larger spatial scales, while biotic factors, such as species interactions, are considered more important at local scales within communities, in part because of the knowledge gap on species interactions at large spatial scales (i.e., the Eltonian shortfall). We assessed, at a continental scale, (i) the importance of biotic interactions, through food webs, on species distributions, and (ii) how biotic interactions under scenarios of climate and land-use change may affect the distribution of the brown bear (Ursus arctos). We built a highly detailed, spatially dynamic, and empirically sampled food web based on the energy contribution of 276 brown bear food species from different taxa (plants, vertebrates, and invertebrates) and their ensemble habitat models at high resolution across Europe. Then, combining energy contribution and predicted habitat of food species, we modelled energy contribution across space and included these layers within Bayesian-based models of the brown bear distribution in Europe. The inclusion of biotic interactions considerably improved our understanding of brown bear distribution at large (continental) scales compared with Bayesian models including only abiotic factors (climate and land use). Predicted future range shifts, which included changes in the distribution of food species, varied greatly when considering various scenarios of change in biotic factors, providing a warning that future indirect climate and land-use change are likely to have strong but highly uncertain impacts on species biogeography. Our study confirmed that advancing our understanding of ecological networks of species interactions will improve future projections of biodiversity change, especially for modelling species distributions and their functional role under climate and land-use change scenarios, which is key for effective conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipBBI-MATRA [ANR-16-EBI3-0003]en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipAgence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR), France [2016/22/Z/NZ8/00121]en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipNational Science Center (NCN), Polanden_US
dc.description.sponsorshipFederal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) [01LC1614A]en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipDLR Project Management Agency (DLR-PT), Germany [BiodivERsA3-2015-147-BearConnect (96/2016)]en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipRomanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation, CCCDI-UEFISCDI, Romania [269863, PID2020-114181GB-I00, MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033]en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipNorwegian Research Council (RCN), Norway [LIFE07NAT/IT/000502]en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipERDF A way of making Europe [451-03-68/2022-14-200007]en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipMinistry of Education Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbiaen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipWWF Adria - Regione Friuli Venezia Giuliaen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipLIFE DINALP BEAR and EURONATUR [LIFE13 NAT/SI/000550]en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipLIFE DINALP BEAR [J4-7362]en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipSlovenia Research Agencyen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipWWF Austriaen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipHellenic Ministry of Rural Developmenten_US
dc.description.sponsorshipSwedish Environmental Protection Agency [LIFE07 NAT/GR/000291, LIFE07 NAT/IT/000502, LIFE12 NAT/GR/000784, LIFE09 NAT/GR/000333, LIFE15 NAT/GR/001108, LIFE96NAT/GR/003222, LIFE99NAT/GR/006498]en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipNorwegian Environmental Agency - LIFE program [LIFE08NAT/RO/000500-LIFEURSUS]en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipPrincipado de Asturias government [ROSCI0229, PRG1209, TK215]en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipLIFE+en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipEstonian Ministry of Education and Research [POLNOR/198352/85/2013]en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipProject GLOBEen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipBudget of Tatra National Parken_US
dc.description.sponsorshipHacettepe University, Kastamonu University - Scandinavian Brown Bear Research Projecten_US
dc.description.sponsorshipNorwegian Directorate for Nature Managementen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipAustrian Science Fund - Kakar Mountains Sustainable Forest Use and Conservation Project [LIFE 13 NAT/RO/001154]en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipMinistry of Agriculture and Forestry, Government of Finland - Life for Bearen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipMinistry of Forestry and Water Affairs from Trkiyeen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipNature Conservation Centreen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipScientific and Technological Research Council of Trkiye - Segre Funden_US
dc.description.sponsorshipSigrid Rausing Trusten_US
dc.description.sponsorshipChristensen Fund, National Geographic Societyen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipUNDP Small Grants Programme, University of Utah [18-14-00093]en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipWhitley Fund - Russian Science Foundationen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipMAVA foundationen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipEuroNatur foundation - Aktionsgemeinschaft Artenschutz (Germany)en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipBears in Mind (the Netherlands), Bernd Thies Foundation (Switzerland), Columbus Zooen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipEuroNatur (Germany), Frankfurt Zoological Society (Germany)en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipInternational Association for Bear Research and Management (USA)en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipNando Peretti Foundation (Italy)en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipStichting Wildlife (the Netherlands) [EMERGIA20_00135, CNS2022-136018, MICIU/AEI/10.13039/501100011033]en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipStiftung fr Bren (Germany) - Junta de Andaluca [LIFE19 NAT/ES/000913]en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipEuropean Union NextGenerationEU/PRTRen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipSpanish Ministry for the Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge of the Government of Spainen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipGBIF - Asturias, Cantabriaen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipRegione Friuli Venezia Giuliaen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipISPRA (Italy)en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipHunters Society of Sloveniaen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipUniversity of Thessalonikien_US
dc.description.sponsorshipBiodiversity and Conservation Ecology Lab at the University of Utah School of Biological Sciences, Government of Navarra, Government of Aragon, Government of Andorraen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipHacettepe Universityen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipP.M.L., L.J.P., W.T., N.S., M.D.B, N.Ba., T.D., A.F., S.C.F., and A.Z. were financially supported through the 2015-2016 BiodivERsA COFUND call (project BearConnect), with national funders Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR), France (Grant number: ANR-16-EBI3-0003), National Science Center (NCN), Poland (Grant number: 2016/22/Z/NZ8/00121), Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and DLR Project Management Agency (DLR-PT), Germany (Grant number: 01LC1614A), Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation, CCCDI-UEFISCDI, Romania (Grant number: BiodivERsA3-2015-147-BearConnect (96/2016) within PNCDI III), and Norwegian Research Council (RCN), Norway (Grant number: 269863). V.P. was financially supported by the Grant PID2020-114181GB-I00 funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and by ERDF A way of making Europe. D.Z. and A.D. were funded by the PIN-MATRA and the BBI-MATRA programs and the project LIFE07NAT/IT/000502. N.Bo. and D.& Cacute;. were funded by the Ministry of Education Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia (451-03-68/2022-14-200007) and by the WWF Adria. S.F. and L.F. were funded by the Regione Friuli Venezia Giulia. D.H., S.R. and D.D.A. thanks the funding from LIFE DINALP BEAR and EURONATUR. K.J. and T.S. acknowledge the funding from the LIFE DINALP BEAR (LIFE13 NAT/SI/000550) and the Slovenia Research Agency, project J4-7362. A.M.-J. and P.Mo. were funded by WWF Austria, LIFE13 NAT/SI/000550 LIFE DINALP BEAR. A.A.K. and M.d.G.H. thanks the funding to Vodafone, Acturos and the Hellenic Ministry of Rural Development. J.K. and H.B. thanks the funding from the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, Norwegian Environmental Agency. Y.M. and M.Ps. were funded by the LIFE program (LIFE07 NAT/GR/000291; LIFE07 NAT/IT/000502; LIFE12 NAT/GR/000784; LIFE09 NAT/GR/000333; LIFE15 NAT/GR/001108; LIFE96NAT/GR/003222; LIFE99NAT/GR/006498). E.R. and J.N. thanks the funding from the Principado de Asturias government. I.-M.P. was funded by LIFE08NAT/RO/000500-LIFEURSUS (financed by LIFE+ and ACDB) and by ROSCI0229 Siriu (Romanian Environmental SOP 2007-2014). U.S. and E.T. thanks the funding from the grants PRG1209 and TK215 from the Estonian Ministry of Education and Research. N.S., T.Z.-K., A.Se., F.Z. thanks the funding from Project GLOBE (POLNOR/198352/85/2013) funded by the Polish-Norwegian Research Programme operated by the National Centre for Research and Development and by the budget of Tatra National Park. A.So. and A.E. thanks the funding from Hacettepe University, Kastamonu University, General Directorate of Nature Conservation and National Parks, Ministry of Forestry and Water Affairs, Turkiye. A.St. and D.M. were funded by the Balkan Lynx Recovery Programme. S.C.F. and A.Z. thanks the funding from The Scandinavian Brown Bear Research Project, which is funded by the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, the Norwegian Directorate for Nature Management and the Austrian Science Fund. C.C.B. and H.A. were funded by the Kackar Mountains Sustainable Forest Use and Conservation Project. I.K., S.H., and O.H. were funded by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Government of Finland. M.Po., R.J., G.I., O.I., and G.S. were funded by Life for Bear LIFE 13 NAT/RO/001154. the Nulceu Programmme ANCSI Eco-etologa carnicorelor mari in contextual dezvoltarii infrastructurii, and the BEAR Ethology Around Romania FP5. A.O.S. and D.O. were funded by the Ministry of Forestry and Water Affairs from Turkiye, the Nature Conservation Centre and the United Nations GEF-5 Programme, by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkiye. C.H.& Scedil;. and M.W.C. were funded by the Segre Fund, the Sigrid Rausing Trust, Christensen Fund, National Geographic Society, UNDP Small Grants Programme, University of Utah, Whitley Fund. A.P.S., V.N.P. were funded by the Russian Science Foundation (project No. 18-14-00093). A.T. and B.H. were funded by MAVA foundation, EuroNatur foundation. C.D. was funded by Aktionsgemeinschaft Artenschutz (Germany), Bears in Mind (the Netherlands), Bernd Thies Foundation (Switzerland), Columbus Zoo and Aquarium (USA), EuroNatur (Germany), Frankfurt Zoological Society (Germany), Fresno Chaffe Zoo (United States), the International Association for Bear Research and Management (USA), the Nando Peretti Foundation (Italy), Stichting Wildlife (the Netherlands), and Stiftung fur Baren (Germany). We thank the Emergia contract funded by the Junta de Andalucia (EMERGIA20_00135), and the grant CNS2022-136018 funded by MICIU/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and by European Union NextGenerationEU/PRTR, which provided funding for the position of P.M.L. J.V.L.B. thanks the funding from the LIFE19 NAT/ES/000913 Bears with Future project (financed by the European Union), and the Spanish Ministry for the Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge of the Government of Spain. We dedicate this work to the memory of Fernando Ballesteros, who contributed significantly to this research and sadly passed away in August 2023. We thank Manuela Gonzalez-Suarez, Pablo Burraco, Luigi Maiorano and Soren Faurby for their helpful suggestions regarding the manuscript. We thank Luigi Maiorano for sharing the brown bear data. We are also in debt to Angel Lucas for the artwork in Figures 1 and 4,5. We also thank Galician Supercomputing Center (CESGA, Galicia, Spain) for their technical and infrastructure support. We thank GBIF and people and institutions that contribute to GBIF, to make public their environmental research data. BearConnect is an initiative for large-scale mobilization of brown bear data in Europe for conservation. It is currently self-funded by BearConnect project partners and supported by close collaboration with researchers and stakeholders. This is paper 27 from BearConnect. We would like to thank to the Brown Bear Foundation rangers and technicians, regional governments of Cantabria, Galicia, Asturias, Cantabria and Castilla y Leon, Regione Friuli Venezia Giulia, the ISPRA (Italy), the Slovenia Forest Service, the Hunters Society of Slovenia, the CUFAA, the University of Thessaloniki, the Northern Pindos National Park, the AnGre Regional Development, the AnKas Regional Development, the Rodopi Mountain Range National Park, the University of Thessaly, Egnatia SA, Ministry of Environment, Energy and Climatic Change, H. Batubay Ozkan and Barbara Watkins for their support of the Biodiversity and Conservation Ecology Lab at the University of Utah School of Biological Sciences, Government of Navarra, Government of Aragon, Government of Andorra, Conselh Generau d'Aran, Fauna and Flora Service, Alt Pirineu Natural Park, Ramon Jato, Sergio Mir, Salvador Goncalbez, Antoni Batet, Jordi Guillen, Xavier Garreta, members and students of the Carpathian Brown Bear Project, the personnel of Tatra National Park helping in the captures, the Hacettepe University, the Regional Inspectorate of Environment and Waters-Smolyan, the Central Balkan National Park, the Vitosha Nature park, Sanna Kokko, the Natural Resources Institute Finland, Slavomir Fin & dcaron;o, the WWF Austria, the Institute of Wildlife Biology and Game Management, the University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, to Eko-Zon Public Health and Environmental Consultation, to Kolesnikov V.V., Mashkin V.I., Skumatov D.V., Zarubin B.E. (all-VNIIOZ, Kirov), the Balkan Lynx Recovery Programme, DVM Levente Borka-Vitalis (Vets4Wild), Karoly Illyes (Muresul Private Forestry Service), Karoly Pal (Pro Diana Hunting Association), and & Aacute;goston Pal (Tarnava Mare Hunting and Angling Association).en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/gcb.70252
dc.identifier.issn1354-1013
dc.identifier.issn1365-2486
dc.identifier.issue6en_US
dc.identifier.pmid40464077en_US
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-105007290396en_US
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70252
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12684/21814
dc.identifier.volume31en_US
dc.identifier.wosWOS:001501319800001en_US
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ1en_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Scienceen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakPubMeden_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherWileyen_US
dc.relation.ispartofGlobal Change Biologyen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen_US
dc.snmzKA_WOS_20250911
dc.subjectclimate changeen_US
dc.subjectcommunityen_US
dc.subjectecosystemen_US
dc.subjectfood weben_US
dc.subjecthabitaten_US
dc.subjecthuman impacten_US
dc.subjectland useen_US
dc.subjectpredator-preyen_US
dc.subjectspecies distribution modelen_US
dc.subjectUrsus arctosen_US
dc.titleTrophic Interactions Are Key to Understanding the Effects of Global Change on the Distribution and Functional Role of the Brown Bearen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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