A primary econometric approach to modeling and forecasting the demand for fuelwood in Turkey

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dc.contributor.authorKayacan, Bekir
dc.contributor.authorUcal, Meltem Şengün
dc.contributor.authorÖztürk, Atakan
dc.contributor.authorBalı, Ramazan
dc.contributor.authorKoçer, Sacit
dc.contributor.authorKaplan, Erdem
dc.date.accessioned2020-04-30T22:38:49Z
dc.date.available2020-04-30T22:38:49Z
dc.date.issued2012
dc.departmentDÜ, Orman Fakültesi, Orman Endüstrisi Mühendisliği Bölümüen_US
dc.descriptionUCAL, Meltem/0000-0003-3707-1948;en_US
dc.descriptionWOS: 000311600700071en_US
dc.description.abstractA primary econometric approach is presented to understand the determinants of variation in national demand for domestically-produced fuelwood in Turkey. Also included in this study is a demand forecast for fuelwood based upon the econometric model proposed in this study. Being in multiplicative form originally, the proposed model is converted in to a double-log or log-linear form, for the ease of immediate interpretation of the parameter estimates in respect of elasticities. Parameter estimation is based on a panel and time series data set that belongs to the 15-year period between 1995 and 2009. The demand forecast presented has a horizon of 7 years beyond 2009. Major findings of the research include: 1) fuelwood demand in Turkey appears to conform to the law of demand with an inverse price-demand relationship; 2) fuelwood demand is notably price-sensitive with relatively high price elasticity; 3) fuelwood does not appear to be a related (complementary or substitute) good with coal and natural gas; and 4) fuelwood in Turkey is likely to be a "normal good" in respect of demand-income relationship. Meanwhile, based upon the proposed model here, fuelwood demand in Turkey may reasonably continue to show a downward trend till a level of 5 million m(3) per annum, which is an about 50% reduction from the demand level in 1995. Further research is particularly needed for Turkey in view of the rapidly changing socio-economic profile of rural and urban population, which is being reflected in the demand for energy from wood in forms besides wood in the raw.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipScientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey, TUBITAKTurkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Arastirma Kurumu (TUBITAK) [107 O 781]en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThis paper is a product of a research project (Project no: 107 O 781) financially supported by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey, TUBITAK.en_US
dc.identifier.endpage937en_US
dc.identifier.issn1459-0255
dc.identifier.issn1459-0263
dc.identifier.issue03.Apren_US
dc.identifier.scopusqualityN/Aen_US
dc.identifier.startpage934en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12684/2460
dc.identifier.volume10en_US
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000311600700071en_US
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ4en_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Scienceen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherWfl Publen_US
dc.relation.ispartofJournal Of Food Agriculture & Environmenten_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccessen_US
dc.subjectFuel wood demanden_US
dc.subjecteconometric modelen_US
dc.subjectregression analysisen_US
dc.subjectdemand forecasten_US
dc.subjectTurkish forestryen_US
dc.titleA primary econometric approach to modeling and forecasting the demand for fuelwood in Turkeyen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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