Assessment of the Disaster Recovery Progress through Mathematical Modelling
Yükleniyor...
Dosyalar
Tarih
2020
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
Natural disasters, especially major earthquakes, cause widespread devastation in the built environment. Hence, the major component of the recovery in its aftermath constitutes a chain of projects starting at different times, having different costs and durations. In this study, the post disaster recovery curve modelled through a mathematical approach taking into account these properties of the projects. The approach followed is based on the project S-curve concept that provides the opportunity to simulate the progress by outlining the project spending. Well-known mathematical functions are adapted to model the project spending and the handover processes. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to evaluate the general behavior of the recovery curve using the model developed. Weibull distribution is used to generate the model’s parameters. Results of Monte Carlo simulation demonstrate that the recovery process exhibits an S-shape; the duration of initial portion and the slope of the bulk portion being significantly governed by the level of preparedness of the community.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
[No Keywords]
Kaynak
Teknik Dergi
WoS Q Değeri
Q4
Scopus Q Değeri
Q3
Cilt
31
Sayı
4
