A Fuzzy Cognitive Map Approach Applied in Cost-Benefit Analysis for Highway Projects
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Date
2017
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Springer Heidelberg
Access Rights
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
Abstract
Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is a method widely used all over the world for transport project appraisal. However, this method needs to handle the inherent uncertainty which affects the results negatively. In a highway project, there are high uncertainties due to a lack of data, future predictions, economic indeterminacy, etc. In conventional approaches, a risk analysis, which is based primarily on a sensitivity analysis and/or Monte Carlo simulation, is conducted in order to solve the problems mentioned above. However, these approaches present some main drawbacks. This study aims to investigate the usability and utility of a new approach in highways CBA in order to cope with uncertainty easily and in a more userfriendly way. To achieve the above-cited goal, the technique of a fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) was utilized due to its popularity in modeling complex problems. A decisionmaking FCM model including a RISK parameter was developed by experienced people/experts in this scientific domain to assess benefits and costs in highway projects. The developed FCM model focuses on minimizing the effects of uncertainty in the CBA for highways. Therefore, the concepts of conventional CBA were defined within the domain of risk analysis. The performance of the developed FCM model was tested through actual feasibility studies as well as through a specific case study. As a result of comparisons, promising results for validation of the developed FCM model are obtained.
Description
Papageorgiou, Elpiniki/0000-0003-2498-9661
WOS: 000412896700018
WOS: 000412896700018
Keywords
Cost-benefit analysis, Decision making, Fuzzy cognitive map, Fuzzy risk analysis, Highway projects, Transport economic appraisal
Journal or Series
International Journal Of Fuzzy Systems
WoS Q Value
Q2
Scopus Q Value
Q2
Volume
19
Issue
5
