Forecasting of daily natural gas consumption on regional basis in Turkey using various computational methods

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dc.contributor.authorTaşpınar, Fatih
dc.contributor.authorCelebi, Numan
dc.contributor.authorTutkun, Nedim
dc.date.accessioned2020-05-01T12:10:05Z
dc.date.available2020-05-01T12:10:05Z
dc.date.issued2013
dc.departmentDÜ, Mühendislik Fakültesi, Çevre Mühendisliği Bölümüen_US
dc.descriptionTaspinar, Fatih/0000-0002-5908-8188en_US
dc.descriptionWOS: 000314378500003en_US
dc.description.abstractIt is widely accepted that natural gas is a clean energy source that can be used to meet energy demand for heating and industrial purpose among the fossil fuels and its usage remarkably increases in order to maintain a clean environment in many countries in the world. It is fact that this makes energy investment planning in a country or region highly important for suitable economic development as well as environmental aspect. Therefore, energy demand for various sectors should be estimated in the frame of short-term energy policy. For accurate estimation of short-term energy demand a limited number of computational methods are employed by using the 4 yearly measured natural gas consumption values. Among these methods, the ANN and time series are widely used for short-term estimation of natural gas consumption in Turkey's certain regions. In this study, multilayer perceptron the ANNs with time series approach is proposed to forecast short-term natural gas consumption. Meteorological data (moisture, atmospheric pressure, wind speed and ambient temperature) obtained from the regional gas distribution company and the local meteorology office in last 4 years to construct well-tuned algorithm. Although the number of data was small, the proposed algorithm works well to forecast the short-term natural gas consumption and produces encouraging and meaningful outcomes for future energy investment policy. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.enbuild.2012.10.023en_US
dc.identifier.endpage31en_US
dc.identifier.issn0378-7788
dc.identifier.issn1872-6178
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1en_US
dc.identifier.startpage23en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2012.10.023
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12684/5992
dc.identifier.volume56en_US
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000314378500003en_US
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ1en_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Scienceen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherElsevier Science Saen_US
dc.relation.ispartofEnergy And Buildingsen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccessen_US
dc.subjectNatural gas consumptionen_US
dc.subjectForecasting methodologyen_US
dc.subjectTime series modelsen_US
dc.subjectSARIMAXen_US
dc.subjectNeural networksen_US
dc.titleForecasting of daily natural gas consumption on regional basis in Turkey using various computational methodsen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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