Forecasting of daily natural gas consumption on regional basis in Turkey using various computational methods
Yükleniyor...
Dosyalar
Tarih
2013
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Elsevier Science Sa
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
Özet
It is widely accepted that natural gas is a clean energy source that can be used to meet energy demand for heating and industrial purpose among the fossil fuels and its usage remarkably increases in order to maintain a clean environment in many countries in the world. It is fact that this makes energy investment planning in a country or region highly important for suitable economic development as well as environmental aspect. Therefore, energy demand for various sectors should be estimated in the frame of short-term energy policy. For accurate estimation of short-term energy demand a limited number of computational methods are employed by using the 4 yearly measured natural gas consumption values. Among these methods, the ANN and time series are widely used for short-term estimation of natural gas consumption in Turkey's certain regions. In this study, multilayer perceptron the ANNs with time series approach is proposed to forecast short-term natural gas consumption. Meteorological data (moisture, atmospheric pressure, wind speed and ambient temperature) obtained from the regional gas distribution company and the local meteorology office in last 4 years to construct well-tuned algorithm. Although the number of data was small, the proposed algorithm works well to forecast the short-term natural gas consumption and produces encouraging and meaningful outcomes for future energy investment policy. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Açıklama
Taspinar, Fatih/0000-0002-5908-8188
WOS: 000314378500003
WOS: 000314378500003
Anahtar Kelimeler
Natural gas consumption, Forecasting methodology, Time series models, SARIMAX, Neural networks
Kaynak
Energy And Buildings
WoS Q Değeri
Q1
Scopus Q Değeri
Q1
Cilt
56
