Modeling and forecasting the demand for industrial roundwood in Turkey: A primary econometric approach

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dc.contributor.authorKayacan, Bekir
dc.contributor.authorUcal, Meltem Şengün
dc.contributor.authorÖztürk, Atakan
dc.contributor.authorBalı, Ramazan
dc.contributor.authorKoçer, Sacit
dc.contributor.authorKaplan, Erdem
dc.date.accessioned2020-04-30T23:19:15Z
dc.date.available2020-04-30T23:19:15Z
dc.date.issued2012
dc.departmentDÜ, Orman Fakültesi, Orman Endüstrisi Mühendisliği Bölümüen_US
dc.descriptionUCAL, Meltem/0000-0003-3707-1948en_US
dc.descriptionWOS: 000305310800043en_US
dc.description.abstractThis study is a primary econometric analysis to explore the factors explaining the changes in industrial roundwood demand in Turkey. The study also includes demand forecasts based on the econometric models proposed herein. We constructed two separate econometric models: one for national demand for domestically-produced saw log, and the other for national demand for domestically-produced non-sawlog industrial roundwood. Models were originally designed in multiplicative form. The original models are then converted into the log-linear form so that the relevant coefficients of the regression equations would immediately reflect the elasticities. Estimation of the model parameters are based on a panel data set of fifteen years (1995-2009) by twenty seven regional forest directorates in the country. In accordance with the maxim of less than the half of the 15 years period of data set, the demand forecasts are made for seven years beyond 2009. In view of the results, the explanatory power of the proposed models can arguably be deemed satisfactory especially considering the lack of earlier studies of this scale and scope. This consequently increases the credibility of the demand projections. Notwithstanding signs of the estimated parameters of the models are for the most part congruent with those expected in light of the economic theory and practice, some intriguing results are obtained. Perhaps most notably, while the sign of the estimated price elasticity of sawlog demand occurred unexpectedly positive, the variation in sawlog demand is explained to a considerable extent by the variation in the price of imported sawlog, hence an expected cross elasticity. Also notable is that the price of imported "fuelwood" holds a positive relationship with the national demand for domestic non-sawlog imdustrial roundwood, which is an expected cross elasticity since virtually all of the imported "fuelwood" is used as raw material for industry (e.g. chip and fiberboard industry). Finally, both models suggest overall boost in demand: yet an upper bound of 4.5 million m(3) for national demand for domestically-produced sawlog, and of 15 million m(3) for national demand for domestically-produced non-sawlog industrial roundwood can be expected by 2016.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipScientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey, TUBITAKTurkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Arastirma Kurumu (TUBITAK) [107 O 781]en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThis paper is a product of a research project (Project no: 107 O 781) financially supported by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey, TUBITAK.en_US
dc.identifier.endpage1132en_US
dc.identifier.issn1459-0255
dc.identifier.issue2en_US
dc.identifier.scopusqualityN/Aen_US
dc.identifier.startpage1127en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12684/3700
dc.identifier.volume10en_US
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000305310800043en_US
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ4en_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Scienceen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherWfl Publen_US
dc.relation.ispartofJournal Of Food Agriculture & Environmenten_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccessen_US
dc.subjectRoundwood demanden_US
dc.subjectforest sectoren_US
dc.subjecteconometric modelen_US
dc.subjectregression analysisen_US
dc.subjecttimber marketen_US
dc.subjectdemand forecasten_US
dc.subjectTurkish forestryen_US
dc.titleModeling and forecasting the demand for industrial roundwood in Turkey: A primary econometric approachen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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