Türkiye'de Bireysel Emeklilik Sisteminin gelişimi ve farklı iktisadi değişkenlerle ilişkisinin analizi
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Date
2022
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Düzce Üniversitesi
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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Abstract
Sosyal Güvenlik sistemlerinin bir tamamlayıcısı olarak tüm dünyada hızla yaygınlaşan Bireysel Emeklilik Sistemleri (BES) bugün çoğu gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler tarafından uygulanmaktadır. Sosyal Güvenlik sistemlerinin karmaşık ve komplike yapılarından kaynaklanan birtakım eksiklik veya gecikmelerin giderilmesi amacının yanında Bireysel Emeklilik Sistemi aynı zamanda iç tasarruf fonu işlevi ile de dikkat çekmektedir. Bu açıdan Bireysel Emeklilik Sistemi hem bir sosyal güvenlik enstrümanı hem de iç finansman kaynağı olarak değerlendirildiğinde ekonomik hayatın önemli bir bileşeni haline gelmektedir. Bu çalışmada Bireysel Emeklilik Sisteminin gelişimi ve uygulaması incelenmiştir. İktisadi değişkenlerden özellikle harcama alışkanlıkları üzerinde son derece etkili olan hane halkı tasarrufları ve gelirin BES fonları ile ilişkisi olup olmadığı araştırılmıştır. Türkiye'de 2003-2021 yılları arasında hane halkı tasarrufları GSYH ve BES fonları yıllık zaman serileri şeklinde alınarak En Küçük Kareler (EKK) yöntemi ile analiz edilmiştir. Bağımlı değişkenin hane halkı tasarrufu olarak alındığı analiz sonucuna göre BES fonlarının tasarrufları artırıcı bir etkisinin olduğu ortaya çıkmıştır. Kurulan modelin tahmin sonuçları farklı sağlamlık testleri ile sınanmıştır. Çıkan sonuçlara göre model anlamlıdır. Buna göre; Türkiye'de 2003-2021 döneminde Bireysel Emeklilik Sisteminin hane halkı tasarrufu üzerinde pozitif etkisinin olduğu, gelir artışının ise bu süreci desteklediği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.
Private Pension Systems (PPS), which have become widespread all over the world as a complement to Social Security systems, are applied by most developed and developing countries today. In addition to the purpose of eliminating some deficiencies or delays arising from the complex and complicated structures of Social Security systems, PPS also attract attention with their internal savings fund function. In this respect, when the Private Pension System is evaluated as both a social security instrument and a source of internal financing, it becomes an important component of economic life. In this study, the development and application of the Private Pension System were examined. Economic variables, especially household savings that have a great impact on spending habits, and whether income are related to PPS funds were investigated. Between 2003 and 2021 in Turkey, household savings were analyzed by the Least Squares (EQ) method by taking the GDP and PPS funds in the form of annual time series. According to the results of the analysis, where the dependent variable was taken as household savings, it was revealed that the PPS funds had an effect on increasing savings. The prediction results of the installed model were tested with different robustness tests. According to the results, the model is meaningful. Accordingly; It was concluded that the Private Pension System had a positive effect on household savings in the period of 2003-2021 in Turkey and that the increase in income supported this process.
Private Pension Systems (PPS), which have become widespread all over the world as a complement to Social Security systems, are applied by most developed and developing countries today. In addition to the purpose of eliminating some deficiencies or delays arising from the complex and complicated structures of Social Security systems, PPS also attract attention with their internal savings fund function. In this respect, when the Private Pension System is evaluated as both a social security instrument and a source of internal financing, it becomes an important component of economic life. In this study, the development and application of the Private Pension System were examined. Economic variables, especially household savings that have a great impact on spending habits, and whether income are related to PPS funds were investigated. Between 2003 and 2021 in Turkey, household savings were analyzed by the Least Squares (EQ) method by taking the GDP and PPS funds in the form of annual time series. According to the results of the analysis, where the dependent variable was taken as household savings, it was revealed that the PPS funds had an effect on increasing savings. The prediction results of the installed model were tested with different robustness tests. According to the results, the model is meaningful. Accordingly; It was concluded that the Private Pension System had a positive effect on household savings in the period of 2003-2021 in Turkey and that the increase in income supported this process.
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Keywords
Ekonomi, Economics, Sigortacılık, Insurance
