Climate-Driven Shifts in Wild Cherry (Prunus avium L.) Habitats in Türkiye: A Multi-Model Projection for Conservation Planning

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dc.authorid/0000-0001-5847-9155
dc.contributor.authorCanturk, Ugur
dc.contributor.authorKoc, Ismail
dc.contributor.authorErdem, Ramazan
dc.contributor.authorPulatoglu, Ayse Ozturk
dc.contributor.authorDonmez, Sevgi
dc.contributor.authorOzkazanc, Nuri Kaan
dc.contributor.authorSevik, Hakan
dc.date.accessioned2025-10-11T20:47:48Z
dc.date.available2025-10-11T20:47:48Z
dc.date.issued2025
dc.departmentDüzce Üniversitesien_US
dc.description.abstractClimate change poses a serious threat to biodiversity, particularly for woody species with limited dispersal capacity such as Prunus avium L. (wild cherry). In this study, we assessed potential shifts in its suitable distribution range (SDR) across T & uuml;rkiye by applying an ensemble modeling framework that combined Generalized Additive Models (GAM), Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt), and Random Forest (RF). We used updated occurrence data (including GBIF and EUFORGEN records) and 11 ecologically relevant bioclimatic variables under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Model performance was validated using AUC (Area Under the ROC Curve) and TSS (True Skill Statistic) metrics. Results suggest that while 60-70% of current SDRs remain stable by 2100, approximately 10% may be lost, with 20-23% new expansions. Temperature seasonality (Bio4) and seasonal precipitation (Bio15) were consistently identified as dominant predictors across models. Notably, newly suitable habitats are expected to be spatially isolated, limiting natural colonization. Our findings highlight the necessity of proactive conservation planning, including assisted migration and drought-resistant genotype selection, to ensure long-term persistence of wild cherry under changing climates. These results offer actionable insights for adaptive forest management and biodiversity conservation in Mediterranean-type ecosystems.en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/f16091484
dc.identifier.issn1999-4907
dc.identifier.issue9en_US
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-105017241985en_US
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.3390/f16091484
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12684/21571
dc.identifier.volume16en_US
dc.identifier.wosWOS:001581038200001en_US
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ2en_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Scienceen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherMdpien_US
dc.relation.ispartofForestsen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen_US
dc.snmzKA_WOS_20250911
dc.subjectclimate change adaptationen_US
dc.subjectGeneralized Additive Modelsen_US
dc.subjectMaxEnten_US
dc.subjectRandom Foresten_US
dc.subjectspecies distribution modelingen_US
dc.titleClimate-Driven Shifts in Wild Cherry (Prunus avium L.) Habitats in Türkiye: A Multi-Model Projection for Conservation Planningen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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