Time Series Models for Air Pollution Modelling Considering the Shift to Natural Gas in a Turkish City

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dc.contributor.authorTaşpınar, Fatih
dc.date.accessioned2020-04-30T23:34:48Z
dc.date.available2020-04-30T23:34:48Z
dc.date.issued2015
dc.departmentDÜ, Mühendislik Fakültesi, Çevre Mühendisliği Bölümüen_US
dc.descriptionTaspinar, Fatih/0000-0002-5908-8188en_US
dc.descriptionWOS: 000358509300003en_US
dc.description.abstractFossil fuel utilization for residential heating is still a major source of fine particulate matter (PM10) and sulphur dioxide (SO2), despite the increasing consumption of natural gas in some cities in Turkey. In the present study, PM10 and SO2 air pollution and residential natural gas consumption (RNGC) were modelled by various multi-parameter time series modelling methods (TSMs). To estimate short-term pollution levels considering the future estimates of RNGC and meteorological factors, a time series dataset was designed for the years 2007-2013. Factor analysis was also performed to aid in the selection of variables for constructing TSMs. The error measures and coefficient of determination (R-2) were used to evaluate forecasting accuracy of the models constructed. In the short-term estimation of RNGC, PM10, and SO2 for 2014-2015, temperature dependent ARIMAX(1,1,2) (R-2 = 0.944) and RNGC and meteorological factors dependent SARIMAX(0,1,1)(1,1,0) 12 (R-2 = 0.761) and ARIMAX(1,1,0) (R-2 = 0.698) models, respectively, yielded the best fitting scores and accuracy measures. The models performed well in reflecting the time series data and thus, could be utilized in energy planning for sustainable development concerning environmental decision making and short-term air quality forecasting for public health.en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/clen.201400461en_US
dc.identifier.endpage988en_US
dc.identifier.issn1863-0650
dc.identifier.issn1863-0669
dc.identifier.issue7en_US
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ3en_US
dc.identifier.startpage980en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1002/clen.201400461
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12684/5225
dc.identifier.volume43en_US
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000358509300003en_US
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ2en_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Scienceen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherWileyen_US
dc.relation.ispartofClean-Soil Air Wateren_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccessen_US
dc.subjectAir quality forecastingen_US
dc.subjectEnergy consumptionen_US
dc.subjectFactor analysisen_US
dc.subjectPM10en_US
dc.subjectSO2en_US
dc.titleTime Series Models for Air Pollution Modelling Considering the Shift to Natural Gas in a Turkish Cityen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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