Modeling potential habitat distribution of scots pine under climate change scenarios

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dc.contributor.authorCetin, Mehmet
dc.contributor.authorOzel, Halil Baris
dc.contributor.authorBouzqayyah, Mohammed Miftah Mohammed
dc.contributor.authorZeren, Dilek Birgul
dc.contributor.authorSevik, Hakan
dc.contributor.authorVarol, Tugrul
dc.contributor.authorCanturk, Ugur
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-01T11:40:08Z
dc.date.available2026-07-01T11:40:08Z
dc.date.issued2026
dc.departmentDüzce Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractGlobal climate change is impacting organisms and ecosystems on a wide scale, with increasingly visible effects. This ongoing process is anticipated to significantly threaten species and populations, especially plants that lack mobility, potentially causing large-scale losses in the near future. To mitigate these impacts, it is essential to understand how long-lived forest trees will respond to climate shifts and to facilitate necessary migration mechanisms through human intervention. This study aims to model the suitable habitat distribution of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), a crucial forest tree species in T & uuml;rkiye, under two climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) for the present and future years (2040, 2060, 2080, and 2100) using the Maxent entropy model, with mapping support from ArcGIS software. Habitat suitability was analyzed with 21 parameters (19 bioclimatic and 2 topographic). Jackknife test results indicated that Mean Temperature of the Driest Quarter (Bio9) and Mean Temperature of the Warmest Quarter (Bio10) were the most influential parameters on the species' distribution. The findings showed that under the SSP245 scenario, the suitable habitat for Scots pine is projected to decline to 83.63% of its current range by 2060, then increase to 106.02% by 2100. For the SSP585 scenario, the area is projected to decrease to 81.89% by 2060 and reach 96.13% by 2100. Populations in T & uuml;rkiye's southern and Marmara regions face high risks of near-total loss. To sustain Scots pine in new suitable habitats, adjustments to current forest management plans and silvicultural practices are needed to align with climate change projections.
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s11676-026-02005-2
dc.identifier.issn1007-662X
dc.identifier.issn1993-0607
dc.identifier.issue1
dc.identifier.orcid0009-0003-9241-6774
dc.identifier.orcid0000-0001-9552-7419
dc.identifier.orcid0000-0002-8992-0289
dc.identifier.orcid0000-0002-5849-8572
dc.identifier.orcid0000-0003-1662-4830
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-105029648871
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s11676-026-02005-2
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12684/23659
dc.identifier.volume37
dc.identifier.wosWOS:001685258200003
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ1
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherNortheast Forestry Univ
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Forestry Research
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
dc.snmzKA_WOS_20260623
dc.subject[Keyword Not Available]
dc.titleModeling potential habitat distribution of scots pine under climate change scenarios
dc.typeArticle

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