Future land use/land cover scenarios considering natural hazards using Dyna-CLUE in Uzungol Nature Conservation Area (Trabzon-NE Turkiye)

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dc.authoridEKER, REMZİ/0000-0002-9322-9634
dc.authoridAYDIN, Abdurrahim/0000-0002-6572-3395
dc.authorwosidEKER, REMZİ/AAY-3790-2020
dc.contributor.authorAydın, Abdurrahim
dc.contributor.authorEker, Remzi
dc.date.accessioned2023-07-26T11:58:08Z
dc.date.available2023-07-26T11:58:08Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.departmentDÜ, Orman Fakültesi, Orman Mühendisliği Bölümüen_US
dc.description.abstractThis study aimed to determine past and potential future temporal and spatial changes in land use/land cover (LULC) and to evaluate its interactions with natural hazards (especially snow avalanches and rockfalls) in Uzungol Nature Conservation Area (Trabzon-NE Turkiye). The objectives were (1) to assess past LULC change over the last 60 years (1955-2015), (2) to simulate future LULC with Dyna-CLUE by 2035 and 2050 considering two different scenarios, and (3) to evaluate interactions of past and future LULC change with natural hazards. The analysis of past LULC change showed that over the last 60 years settlement areas increased to 51.03 ha converting fully from agricultural areas. According to the future LULC simulations, scenario 1 showed that settlements will expand from 68 ha in 2015 to 97.5 ha in 2035, and up to 126.5 ha in 2050 towards areas that are exposed to snow avalanches. Scenario 2 showed that these settlement areas will increase to 119.75 ha in 2035 and 137.75 ha in 2050. In addition, according to scenario 1 settlements that are exposed to rockfall hazard will change from 28 ha in 2015 to 24 ha in 2035 and 28.25 ha in 2050, whereas according to scenario 2 these areas will change to 26.25 ha in 2035 and 28.75 ha in 2050. This study showed how LULC dramatically changed since 1955 due to population growth and changes in consumption patterns in society, and it further showed potential changes in the future. It was concluded that an obligatory increase in settlements towards dangerous areas will be observed in the future.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipTurkish Scientific and Technical Research Council -TUBITAK [117O929]en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work was funded by the Turkish Scientific and Technical Research Council -TUBITAK (Project Number: 117O929).en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s11069-022-05485-7
dc.identifier.endpage2707en_US
dc.identifier.issn0921-030X
dc.identifier.issn1573-0840
dc.identifier.issue3en_US
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85134692075en_US
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1en_US
dc.identifier.startpage2683en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05485-7
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12684/13408
dc.identifier.volume114en_US
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000828934600002en_US
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ2en_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Scienceen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.institutionauthorAydın, Abdurrahim
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherSpringeren_US
dc.relation.ispartofNatural Hazardsen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccessen_US
dc.snmz$2023V1Guncelleme$en_US
dc.subjectAvalanche; Dyna-Clue; Lulc; Natural Hazards; Rockfallen_US
dc.subjectCellular-Automata; River-Basin; Rapid Urbanization; Regional-Scale; Change Impact; Model; Turkey; Gis; Fragmentation; Simulationen_US
dc.titleFuture land use/land cover scenarios considering natural hazards using Dyna-CLUE in Uzungol Nature Conservation Area (Trabzon-NE Turkiye)en_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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