Forecasting of Türkiye's net electricity consumption with metaheuristic algorithms

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dc.authoridBASARSLAN, MUHAMMET SINAN/0000-0002-7996-9169;
dc.contributor.authorBakay, Melahat Sevgul
dc.contributor.authorBasarslan, Muhammet Sinan
dc.date.accessioned2025-10-11T20:48:32Z
dc.date.available2025-10-11T20:48:32Z
dc.date.issued2025
dc.departmentDüzce Üniversitesien_US
dc.description.abstractThis study advances the literature by integrating and benchmarking five state-of-the-art metaheuristic algorithms to forecast T & uuml;rkiye's net electricity demand using linear and exponential models: artificial ecosystem-based optimization (AEO), grey wolf optimizer (GWO), particle swarm optimization (PSO), artificial bee colony (ABC), and Harris Hawks optimization (HHO). While metaheuristic optimization methods have been utilized in energy forecasting, this study distinguishes itself by employing the novel AEO algorithm, which has demonstrated superior performance to traditional methods in similar domains, thereby contributing a fresh perspective to electricity demand forecasting. All algorithms were trained using data from 1980 to 2009, incorporating population, gross domestic product (GDP), installed power, and gross generation variables, and tested with data from 2010 to 2019. Statistical metrics (R2, MAPE, MBE, rRMSE, and MAE) were used to evaluate algorithm performance. This study projects an annual growth rate in net electricity consumption ranging from 2.14 % to 2.59 %, with cumulative increases by 2050 ranging from 92.63 % to 120.75 %. These findings underscore the importance of proactive energy investment planning to mitigate potential economic challenges arising from significant increases in electricity consumption.en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.jup.2025.101929
dc.identifier.issn0957-1787
dc.identifier.issn1878-4356
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-105000866194en_US
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jup.2025.101929
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12684/21955
dc.identifier.volume95en_US
dc.identifier.wosWOS:001458305300001en_US
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ2en_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Scienceen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherElsevier Sci Ltden_US
dc.relation.ispartofUtilities Policyen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccessen_US
dc.snmzKA_WOS_20250911
dc.subjectElectricity consumptionen_US
dc.subjectMetaheuristic optimizationen_US
dc.subjectSustainable developmenten_US
dc.subjectEnergy-environment nexusen_US
dc.titleForecasting of Türkiye's net electricity consumption with metaheuristic algorithmsen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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