Electric Energy Consumption Forecast And Analysis For Duzce Province

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dc.contributor.authorDuzdar, Irem
dc.contributor.authorTaşcı, İlayda Nur
dc.date.accessioned2025-10-11T20:38:02Z
dc.date.available2025-10-11T20:38:02Z
dc.date.issued2025
dc.departmentDüzce Üniversitesien_US
dc.description.abstractThe purpose of this study is to develop estimation models for the electrical energy consumption values of Düzce Province, Turkey. It has been demonstrated that estimation models were constructed and analyzed for the electrical energy consumption of Düzce between November 2019 and October 2021. To create the dataset, data were obtained monthly from Enerji Piyasaları İşletme A.Ş. (EPİAŞ). Since the data cover two periods (12 months and 24 months) and include seasonality, the Least Squares Method, Fourier Analysis, and Winters' Method were chosen as the estimation models. The evaluation of the models using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) method indicates that Fourier Analysis performs worse than Winters' Method. Winters' Method, which is a multiplicative model, achieved better performance in constructing the electrical energy consumption estimation model in this study. When comparing the two estimation models, no significant difference was observed; however, the analysis results reveal that Winters' Method is more favorable for forecasting electricity consumption values in Düzce for the period between November 2019 and October 2021. These findings demonstrate that Winters' Method outperforms both the Least Squares Method and Fourier Analysis, making it a more reliable option for future studies focused on constructing electricity consumption estimation models. This result emphasizes the importance of using Winters' Method as a reference for future research on electricity demand forecasting.en_US
dc.identifier.endpage157en_US
dc.identifier.issn1305-970X
dc.identifier.issue77en_US
dc.identifier.startpage133en_US
dc.identifier.trdizinid1313776en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://search.trdizin.gov.tr/tr/yayin/detay/1313776
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12684/20845
dc.identifier.volume20en_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakTR-Dizinen_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Yasar Universityen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Ulusal Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen_US
dc.snmzKA_TR_20250911
dc.subjectEnergy Consumptionen_US
dc.subjectEstimationen_US
dc.subjectTime Seriesen_US
dc.subjectFourier Analysisen_US
dc.subjectWinters' Methoden_US
dc.titleElectric Energy Consumption Forecast And Analysis For Duzce Provinceen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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