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    Climate change impacts on Taxus baccata distribution and conservation
    (Northeast Forestry Univ, 2025) Cetin, Ilknur Zeren; Ozel, Halil Baris; Varol, Tugrul; Canturk, Ugur; Sevik, Hakan
    This study looks at the impact of climate change on the future distribution of Taxus baccata L., a species under threat. It examines how altitudinal changes may influence distribution, projecting scenarios to 2100 using the SSPs 585 SSPs 245 scenarios in 20-year intervals. The results show a contraction in distribution in areas such as in Iceland and the United Kingdom, with certain extreme points disappearing. Simultaneously, new suitable areas are expected to emerge in select regions of Asia. The study underscores the significant changes anticipated in the distribution of T. baccata due to global climate change. It suggests that the threshold for addressing climate change on this particular species has been exceeded, and emphasizes the need for concerted efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change impacts on ecosystems and organisms. As climate change affects various aspects of life, the study advocates for sector-wide plans. These would include efficient resource utilization, selecting genotypes for afforestation of this species with lower water requirements, incorporating climate change predictions into management plans, conserving biological and genetic diversity, and developing in-situ and ex-situ conservation strategies. Anticipation of future climate changes and corresponding measures in response are crucial to minimizing the impact on this species. The study recommends establishing mixed forests composed of species resilient to a range of climate scenarios, thereby enhancing forest continuity across regions with varying degrees of climate impact. Genetic diversity is an important defense mechanism important to preserving it. Global climate change will result in significant alterations in the distribution of certain species, potentially causing population declines. Intervention is required to support the adaptation of vulnerable species, necessitating forward-looking strategies that anticipate shifts in their habitat suitability. This study emphasizes the implications of climate change for T. baccata and underscores the urgency of targeted conservation efforts to protect its populations and ensure long-term persistence.
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    Impacts of climate change scenarios on European ash tree (Fraxinus excelsior L.) in Turkey
    (Elsevier, 2021) Varol, Tugrul; Canturk, Ugur; Cetin, Mehmet; Ozel, Halil Baris; Sevik, Hakan
    Climate change is expected to have various impacts on forest ecosystems through drought, heat stress, insect invasions and forest fires. Therefore, lack of taking the necessary measures in time will lead to the extinction or endangerment of valuable species. The entropy method was used in order to estimate the geographic distribution of Fraxinus excelsior L. available in Turkey under present and future climate conditions. 19 bioclimatic variables obtained from the monthly data within 30 provinces, where Fraxinus excelsior L. was found in Turkey, as well as the topographic variable of elevation were used in the modelling process. The results show that Fraxinus excelsior L. is largely affected by precipitation in the driest month, the driest quarter and the hottest quarter. According to the response curve of Fraxinus excelsior L. in Turkey, it is observed that it prefers the habitats with average precipitation of 22 mm in the driest month, average precipitation of 100 mm in the driest quarter and the precipitation over 70 mm in the hottest quarter. The SSPs 245 and SSPs 585 climate scenarios, respectively, show that the geographic distribution of Fraxinus excelsior L. will narrow by 7.58% and 6.28% in 2100. All of these results show that species response to the individual and communal impacts as well as the impacts at ecosystem scale dictated by climate change by changing their climatic niches. Most of the plant species that lack an effective and rapid migration ability will have difficulty in finding suitable habitat areas. Thus, the ecological consequences of the narrowing experienced in the foreseen borders may have serious consequences for both the management and protection of forests.