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Öğe Climate change impacts on Taxus baccata distribution and conservation(Northeast Forestry Univ, 2025) Cetin, Ilknur Zeren; Ozel, Halil Baris; Varol, Tugrul; Canturk, Ugur; Sevik, HakanThis study looks at the impact of climate change on the future distribution of Taxus baccata L., a species under threat. It examines how altitudinal changes may influence distribution, projecting scenarios to 2100 using the SSPs 585 SSPs 245 scenarios in 20-year intervals. The results show a contraction in distribution in areas such as in Iceland and the United Kingdom, with certain extreme points disappearing. Simultaneously, new suitable areas are expected to emerge in select regions of Asia. The study underscores the significant changes anticipated in the distribution of T. baccata due to global climate change. It suggests that the threshold for addressing climate change on this particular species has been exceeded, and emphasizes the need for concerted efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change impacts on ecosystems and organisms. As climate change affects various aspects of life, the study advocates for sector-wide plans. These would include efficient resource utilization, selecting genotypes for afforestation of this species with lower water requirements, incorporating climate change predictions into management plans, conserving biological and genetic diversity, and developing in-situ and ex-situ conservation strategies. Anticipation of future climate changes and corresponding measures in response are crucial to minimizing the impact on this species. The study recommends establishing mixed forests composed of species resilient to a range of climate scenarios, thereby enhancing forest continuity across regions with varying degrees of climate impact. Genetic diversity is an important defense mechanism important to preserving it. Global climate change will result in significant alterations in the distribution of certain species, potentially causing population declines. Intervention is required to support the adaptation of vulnerable species, necessitating forward-looking strategies that anticipate shifts in their habitat suitability. This study emphasizes the implications of climate change for T. baccata and underscores the urgency of targeted conservation efforts to protect its populations and ensure long-term persistence.Öğe Impacts of climate change scenarios on European ash tree (Fraxinus excelsior L.) in Turkey(Elsevier, 2021) Varol, Tugrul; Canturk, Ugur; Cetin, Mehmet; Ozel, Halil Baris; Sevik, HakanClimate change is expected to have various impacts on forest ecosystems through drought, heat stress, insect invasions and forest fires. Therefore, lack of taking the necessary measures in time will lead to the extinction or endangerment of valuable species. The entropy method was used in order to estimate the geographic distribution of Fraxinus excelsior L. available in Turkey under present and future climate conditions. 19 bioclimatic variables obtained from the monthly data within 30 provinces, where Fraxinus excelsior L. was found in Turkey, as well as the topographic variable of elevation were used in the modelling process. The results show that Fraxinus excelsior L. is largely affected by precipitation in the driest month, the driest quarter and the hottest quarter. According to the response curve of Fraxinus excelsior L. in Turkey, it is observed that it prefers the habitats with average precipitation of 22 mm in the driest month, average precipitation of 100 mm in the driest quarter and the precipitation over 70 mm in the hottest quarter. The SSPs 245 and SSPs 585 climate scenarios, respectively, show that the geographic distribution of Fraxinus excelsior L. will narrow by 7.58% and 6.28% in 2100. All of these results show that species response to the individual and communal impacts as well as the impacts at ecosystem scale dictated by climate change by changing their climatic niches. Most of the plant species that lack an effective and rapid migration ability will have difficulty in finding suitable habitat areas. Thus, the ecological consequences of the narrowing experienced in the foreseen borders may have serious consequences for both the management and protection of forests.Öğe Modeling potential habitat distribution of scots pine under climate change scenarios(Northeast Forestry Univ, 2026) Cetin, Mehmet; Ozel, Halil Baris; Bouzqayyah, Mohammed Miftah Mohammed; Zeren, Dilek Birgul; Sevik, Hakan; Varol, Tugrul; Canturk, UgurGlobal climate change is impacting organisms and ecosystems on a wide scale, with increasingly visible effects. This ongoing process is anticipated to significantly threaten species and populations, especially plants that lack mobility, potentially causing large-scale losses in the near future. To mitigate these impacts, it is essential to understand how long-lived forest trees will respond to climate shifts and to facilitate necessary migration mechanisms through human intervention. This study aims to model the suitable habitat distribution of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), a crucial forest tree species in T & uuml;rkiye, under two climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) for the present and future years (2040, 2060, 2080, and 2100) using the Maxent entropy model, with mapping support from ArcGIS software. Habitat suitability was analyzed with 21 parameters (19 bioclimatic and 2 topographic). Jackknife test results indicated that Mean Temperature of the Driest Quarter (Bio9) and Mean Temperature of the Warmest Quarter (Bio10) were the most influential parameters on the species' distribution. The findings showed that under the SSP245 scenario, the suitable habitat for Scots pine is projected to decline to 83.63% of its current range by 2060, then increase to 106.02% by 2100. For the SSP585 scenario, the area is projected to decrease to 81.89% by 2060 and reach 96.13% by 2100. Populations in T & uuml;rkiye's southern and Marmara regions face high risks of near-total loss. To sustain Scots pine in new suitable habitats, adjustments to current forest management plans and silvicultural practices are needed to align with climate change projections.Öğe Potential altitude change of oriental spruce in Türkiye due to global climate change(Springer Int Publ Ag, 2025) Zeren Cetin, Ilknur; Ozel, Halil Baris; Sevik, Hakan; Canturk, Ugur; Varol, Tugrul; Atesoglu, Ayhan; Zeren, Dilek BirgulGlobal climate change stands as the most consequential challenge capable of directly or indirectly impacting Earth's diverse living organisms and ecosystems. This study aims to clarify the shifts in potential distribution areas of the Oriental spruce, a key tree species widely distributed across T & uuml;rkiye, which has been observed to shift its distribution toward higher altitudes in recent decades, deviating from its historical natural range. The investigation delves into the species' viable distribution zones across altitude increments, spanning intervals up to the year 2100, scrutinizing two distinct climate scenarios: SSPs 245 and SSPs 585, referring to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways used in CMIP6 to project greenhouse gas emissions under moderate (SSPs 245) and high (SSPs 585) trajectories. The findings manifest a discernible trend: under the SSPs 245 scenario, there emerges a contraction in suitable zones below 1300 m, accompanied by an upswing above 1300 m. In stark contrast, the SSPs 585 scenario foresees an expansion predominantly within the 1800-2600 m range, juxtaposed with declines across below 1800 m and above 2600 m. In terms of aggregate suitable distribution area, an estimated 13.58% diminution emerges under the SSPs 245 scenario, while a substantial 32.08% reduction surfaces under the SSPs 585 scenario, both by the year 2100. These revelations underscore the imperative for prompt action, not only to safeguard the Oriental spruce but also to inform broader conservation and adaptation efforts in the face of escalating global climate change.
