Yazar "Kirca, Mustafa" seçeneğine göre listele

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    Analysis of Symmetric and Asymmetric Causality between Informal Employment and Tourism Demand in Turkey
    (Maliye Bakanligi, 2020) Kaptangil, Kerem; Kirca, Mustafa
    This paper aims to investigate the relationship between informal employment and tourism demand over period 2013M01-2016M12 in Turkey. Hacker and Hatemi-j (2006) symmetric, Hatemi-j (2012) asymmetric causality tests and Hatemi-j (2014) asymmetric impulse-response functions have been employed. Symmetric and asymmetric causality test results suggest that there are causality from tourism demand to informal employment, from negative shock of tourism demand to positive shock of informal employment, from positive shock of tourism demand to negative shock of informal employment and from negative shock of informal employment to positive shock of tourism demand. Asymmetric impulse-response functions show that the directions of asymmetric causality are negative.
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    Determinants of housing inflation in Turkey: a conditional frequency domain causality
    (Emerald Group Publishing Ltd, 2021) Kirca, Mustafa; Canbay, Serif
    Purpose This study aims to investigate whether changes in consumer interest rate, exchange rate and housing supply have permanent effects on housing inflation in Turkey. Design/methodology/approach For this purpose, data from 2010M01 to 2020M06 and changes in consumer interest rate, exchange rate, housing supply and housing inflation were used. Relationships between variables are analyzed first by the Granger causality tests and then the conditional frequency domain causality tests. The conditional frequency domain causality test specifically reveals the permanent causality between variables, whether there is a permanent effect. Findings According to the Granger causality test results, there are causality relationships from changes in the consumer interest rate and exchange rate to housing inflation. However, there is no causality relationship between housing supply and housing inflation. According to the conditional frequency domain causality test results, there is causality for the permanent and mid-term from changes in the consumer interest rate to housing inflation and causality for the mid-term and temporary from changes in the exchange rate to housing inflation. Additionally, it was found that there are causality relationships between changes in the consumer interest rate and changes in the exchange rate. Research limitations/implications The first limit of the study is that only 2010M01-2020M06 months can be considered. Because the date that variables started common is 2010M01. Besides, there is a limit in the study in variables used. Many variables, both micro and macro, can be added to affect housing inflation. Originality/value Housing inflation is a remarkable issue in Turkey. There is an increase in the number of studies on the subject in recent years. For this reason, the study is trying to contribute by approaching the subject from a different angle. The most important contribution of the study is that it has not been investigated whether the determinants of housing inflation have permanent or temporary effects, which were not done in previous studies. In addition, the method used reveals how many months the effects of changes in exchange rates, consumer interest rates and housing supply on housing inflation last. Based on the findings obtained from the methods, important economic and political implications have been put forward in depth.
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    The effects of tourism demand on regional sectoral employment in Turkey
    (Hungarian Central Statistical Office, 2021) Kirca, Mustafa; Ozer, Mustafa
    This study aims to examine the effects of total, foreign and domestic tourism demand on sectoral employment in regions, based on the level 2 of the Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS2) classification determined by the Turkish Statistics Institute (TurkSTAT). For this purpose, we study the impact of tourism demand on overall and sectoral employment in the regions of Turkey between 2004 and 2013, using the Random Coefficients Regression model developed by Swamy. The main results of the study indicate that the contribution of tourism demand, both foreign and domestic to employment, differs across the regions and sectors. Also, the results show that tourism's employment contribution to the industrial sector is the highest. Moreover, the employment contribution of tourism demand is negative for some regions. The employment contribution of domestic tourists' stays is greater than that of foreigners. Based on the results of this study, we can conclude that tourism demand can be used as an effective tool to reduce differences in regional developmental level and increase the contribution to both regional and sectoral employment. There is an urgent need to either develop new tourism policies or revise existing ones so that the county and regions can benefit from investing in the tourism sector.
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    THE IMPACT OF TOURISM DEMAND ON REGIONAL INFLATION IN TURKEY
    (Geografski Inst Jovan Cvijic Sasa, 2020) Kirca, Mustafa; Ozer, Mustafa
    The main purpose of this study is to examine the effects of total tourism demand as well as the effects of both foreign and domestic tourism demand (measured by overnight stays) on regional inflation in Turkey based on the Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics regions classified by Turkish Statistical Institute. To obtain the region-specific effects of tourism demand on inflation, we used the Random Coefficient Regression developed by Swamy by using the annual panel data over the period between 2004 and 2013. Before estimating Swamy Random Coefficients Regressions, we first tested the existence of cross-sectional dependence among the regions of Turkey. And then, based on the results of these tests, we examined the stationarity properties of variables by using second-generation panel unit root tests. The results of the study indicate that there are significant differences in regional effects of different forms of overnight stays on regional inflation. Also, the results show that the contribution of domestic overnight stays to overall and regional inflation is greater than that of foreign overnight stays. Thus, the findings of the study have significant importance in Turkey for designing tourism, industrialization, and monetary policies, particularly aiming to reduce the inflation by adopting inflation targeting regime.
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    Is the relationship between oil-gas prices index and economic growth in Turkey permanent?
    (Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2020) Kirca, Mustafa; Canbay, Serif; Pirali, Kerem
    Oil and gas are the most important inputs that countries use in their production process. For this reason, changes in oil-gas prices affect economic growth, which is the most important macroeconomic performance indicator. This study aims to investigate whether the relations between the oil-gas prices index and economic growth are permanent in Turkey, covering the period 1998Q1-2019Q4. For this purpose, the relationships between variables are first examined by Granger and Toda-Yamamoto causality tests with structural breaks. Then, we analyze whether the relationships between them are permanent using frequency domain causality tests based on these two tests. There is insignificant causality relationship between the variables according to Granger and the Frequency Domain Causality Test results based on this test. However, according to the results of the Toda-Yamamoto causality test with a structural break, there is a causality relationship from oil-gas prices to economic growth. According to the results of the Frequency Domain Causality Test based on this test, the permanent effect of oil-gas prices on economic growth is approximately five years.
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    Symmetric and asymmetric frequency-domain causality between tourism demand and exchange rates in Turkiye: a regional comparison
    (Emerald Group Publishing Ltd, 2023) Canbay, Serif; coskun, Inci Oya; Kirca, Mustafa
    PurposeThis study investigates if the causal relationships between the exchange rates and selected inbound markets' tourism demand are temporary or permanent, and compares market reactions in Turkiye.Design/methodology/approachTourism demand is examined with a regional approach, focusing on the geographical markets, namely Europe, Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) members and Asian countries, as the top inbound tourism markets, in addition to the total number of inbound tourists to Turkiye. Granger, frequency-domain causality, asymmetric Toda-Yamamoto, and asymmetric frequency-domain causality tests were employed to investigate and compare markets on exchange rate-tourism demand relationship for 2008M01-2020M02.FindingsThe results indicate that exchange rates affect European tourism demand both in the short and long run. The meaning of this Frequency Domain Causality (FDC) analysis finding shows that the exchange rate has both permanent and temporary effects on European tourists. The relationships are statistically insignificant for CIS members and Asian countries. The exchange rates also permanently affect total inbound tourism demand, but the independent variable has no short-run (temporary) effects on total demand. Asymmetric causality tests confirmed a permanent causality relationship from the positive and negative components of exchange rates to the positive and negative components of European and total tourism demand.Originality/valueThe Granger causality test provides information on the presence of a causal relation, while the FDC test, an extended version of Granger causality, enlightens the short- (temporary) and long-run (permanent) relationships and allows for analyzing the duration of the impact. In addition, asymmetric causality relationships are also investigated in the study. Besides, this study is the first in the literature to examine the relationship between tourism demand and the exchange rate regionally (continentally) for Turkiye.
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    Unraveling unemployment hysteresis in Nordic countries: a multifaceted analysis of age, gender and frequency differentials
    (Emerald Group Publishing Ltd, 2024) Yilanci, Veli; Kirca, Mustafa; Canbay, Serif; Saglam, Muhlis Selman
    PurposeThis study aims to test the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis for Nordic countries by considering age and gender differentials at various frequencies.Design/methodology/approachFirst, the authors test the linearity of the unemployment series and apply appropriate unit root tests based on the linearity test results. The authors use these tests for both original and wavelet-decomposed unemployment rates.FindingsThe authors' findings indicate that the results obtained from the original and decomposed series differ. While the authors find evidence of unemployment hysteresis in the six unemployment rates in the short run, they observe supportive results for hysteresis in the three unemployment rates in the long run.Originality/valueThe authors take into account different age and gender groups. Furthermore, the authors propose a testing strategy for unemployment hysteresis that considers the nonlinearity and structural breaks in unemployment rates. Finally, the authors determine whether the unemployment hysteresis is valid at various frequencies.