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    An econometric analysis of imported timber demand in Turkey
    (Wfl Publ, 2013) Kayacan, Bekir; Kara, Oğuz; Ucal, Meltem Şengün; Öztürk, Atakan; Balı, Ramazan; Koçer, Sacit; Kaplan, Erdem
    This paper attempts to understand and explain determinants of Turkish demand for foreign timber imported to Turkey. Explanatory variables in the propounded model include price of imported timber, price of domestically-produced sawlog as an imperfect substitute, income per capita, country population, and capacity utilization rates (CUR's) and industrial production indices (IPI's) of forest industry sectors. For empirical purpose we used a time series data covering the 15-year period between 1995 and 2009. The econometric model set for there appears to be able to explain more than 96% of the variation in demand for imported timber, with all of the parameter estimates, except for population parameter, being statistically significant. Estimation results confirm the existence of the price elasticity and substitute cross-price elasticity of demand for imported timber. Results also imply that the Turkish firms importing timber tend to consider domestic sawlog prices as much as, even more than, the price of foreign timber. The hypothesized effects of production changes in wood products and furniture industries on imported timber demand do not appear to be substantiated by this study, which can partly be attributed to the partial method of measuring CUR's and IPI's. Meanwhile, possible effects of income, population and exchange rate index of the Turkish currency on the imported timber demand of the country are not evidenced by the empirical findings of this research. Finally, our model forecasts, ceteris paribus, that by 2016 the level of Turkish demand for imported timber demand can reasonably be expected to exceed 2 million m(3)/year. This corresponds to the level of timber import observed in the years preceding the global economic crisis in 2009.
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    Modeling and forecasting the demand for industrial roundwood in Turkey: A primary econometric approach
    (Wfl Publ, 2012) Kayacan, Bekir; Ucal, Meltem Şengün; Öztürk, Atakan; Balı, Ramazan; Koçer, Sacit; Kaplan, Erdem
    This study is a primary econometric analysis to explore the factors explaining the changes in industrial roundwood demand in Turkey. The study also includes demand forecasts based on the econometric models proposed herein. We constructed two separate econometric models: one for national demand for domestically-produced saw log, and the other for national demand for domestically-produced non-sawlog industrial roundwood. Models were originally designed in multiplicative form. The original models are then converted into the log-linear form so that the relevant coefficients of the regression equations would immediately reflect the elasticities. Estimation of the model parameters are based on a panel data set of fifteen years (1995-2009) by twenty seven regional forest directorates in the country. In accordance with the maxim of less than the half of the 15 years period of data set, the demand forecasts are made for seven years beyond 2009. In view of the results, the explanatory power of the proposed models can arguably be deemed satisfactory especially considering the lack of earlier studies of this scale and scope. This consequently increases the credibility of the demand projections. Notwithstanding signs of the estimated parameters of the models are for the most part congruent with those expected in light of the economic theory and practice, some intriguing results are obtained. Perhaps most notably, while the sign of the estimated price elasticity of sawlog demand occurred unexpectedly positive, the variation in sawlog demand is explained to a considerable extent by the variation in the price of imported sawlog, hence an expected cross elasticity. Also notable is that the price of imported "fuelwood" holds a positive relationship with the national demand for domestic non-sawlog imdustrial roundwood, which is an expected cross elasticity since virtually all of the imported "fuelwood" is used as raw material for industry (e.g. chip and fiberboard industry). Finally, both models suggest overall boost in demand: yet an upper bound of 4.5 million m(3) for national demand for domestically-produced sawlog, and of 15 million m(3) for national demand for domestically-produced non-sawlog industrial roundwood can be expected by 2016.
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    A primary econometric approach to modeling and forecasting the demand for fuelwood in Turkey
    (Wfl Publ, 2012) Kayacan, Bekir; Ucal, Meltem Şengün; Öztürk, Atakan; Balı, Ramazan; Koçer, Sacit; Kaplan, Erdem
    A primary econometric approach is presented to understand the determinants of variation in national demand for domestically-produced fuelwood in Turkey. Also included in this study is a demand forecast for fuelwood based upon the econometric model proposed in this study. Being in multiplicative form originally, the proposed model is converted in to a double-log or log-linear form, for the ease of immediate interpretation of the parameter estimates in respect of elasticities. Parameter estimation is based on a panel and time series data set that belongs to the 15-year period between 1995 and 2009. The demand forecast presented has a horizon of 7 years beyond 2009. Major findings of the research include: 1) fuelwood demand in Turkey appears to conform to the law of demand with an inverse price-demand relationship; 2) fuelwood demand is notably price-sensitive with relatively high price elasticity; 3) fuelwood does not appear to be a related (complementary or substitute) good with coal and natural gas; and 4) fuelwood in Turkey is likely to be a "normal good" in respect of demand-income relationship. Meanwhile, based upon the proposed model here, fuelwood demand in Turkey may reasonably continue to show a downward trend till a level of 5 million m(3) per annum, which is an about 50% reduction from the demand level in 1995. Further research is particularly needed for Turkey in view of the rapidly changing socio-economic profile of rural and urban population, which is being reflected in the demand for energy from wood in forms besides wood in the raw.