Yazar "Canbay, Serif" seçeneğine göre listele

Listeleniyor 1 - 6 / 6
  • Küçük Resim Yok
    Öğe
    The analysis of relationships between global shipping networks and foreign trade volumes in developing countries
    (Elsevier, 2024) Canbay, Serif
    This study aims to examine the relationships between the Liner Shipping Connectivity Index and foreign trade volumes in Brazil, China, India, Russia, T & uuml;rkiye, and South Africa. In pursuit of this objective, causality relationships among the variables were examined using the bootstrap panel causality test with data 2006-2021. The analysis findings indicate a positive and bidirectional causality relationship between the connectivity to global maritime networks and exports in Brazil and a positive and unidirectional causality relationship from the connectivity to global maritime networks and exports in T & uuml;rkiye. Regarding the relationships between the connectivity to global maritime networks and imports, the analysis findings reveal a negative and unidirectional causality relationship from imports to the connectivity to global maritime networks in China, India, and Russia. However, in T & uuml;rkiye, a positive and unidirectional causality relationship was identified from the connectivity to global maritime networks to imports.
  • Küçük Resim
    Öğe
    Analysis of the Relationships Between Agricultural Producer Protection and Macroeconomic Variables in Fragile Five Countries by Bootstrap Panel Causality Test
    (Ankara Univ, Fac Agriculture, 2023) Canbay, Serif
    Agriculture is a leading sector that provides capital accumulation to sustain the economic development processes of developing countries' economies. The low supply and demand elasticity of agricultural products cause fluctuations in agricultural product prices and producer income. Therefore, the first negative reflection of price instability that may arise from fluctuations is generally observed in farmers. Hence, policymakers intervene in the agricultural sector to reduce the instability in agricultural product prices and protect agricultural producers against these effects, as well as the capital accumulation needed for growth and development. Based on this background, this study analyzes the causality relationship between agricultural producer protection (PP) and the macroeconomic variables of Brazil, Indonesia, India, Turkiye, and South Africa, which are referred to as the Fragile Five countries, using the panel bootstrap panel causality test developed by Konya (2006) with the data between 2000 and 2020. The study findings differ among the countries in the sample. It was determined that there are causality relationships between agricultural PP and economic growth, economic development and inflation variables in all countries involved in this study. Although it is difficult to generalize the main findings of the study to all countries in the sample, it can be concluded that economic growth, economic development and inflation, and agricultural PP variables interact with one another. The study also concludes that the protective and supportive measures for agriculture, a significant sector for the macroeconomic performance indicators of the country's economies, are too important to be neglected.
  • Küçük Resim
    Öğe
    Determinants of housing inflation in Turkey: a conditional frequency domain causality
    (Emerald Group Publishing Ltd, 2021) Kirca, Mustafa; Canbay, Serif
    Purpose This study aims to investigate whether changes in consumer interest rate, exchange rate and housing supply have permanent effects on housing inflation in Turkey. Design/methodology/approach For this purpose, data from 2010M01 to 2020M06 and changes in consumer interest rate, exchange rate, housing supply and housing inflation were used. Relationships between variables are analyzed first by the Granger causality tests and then the conditional frequency domain causality tests. The conditional frequency domain causality test specifically reveals the permanent causality between variables, whether there is a permanent effect. Findings According to the Granger causality test results, there are causality relationships from changes in the consumer interest rate and exchange rate to housing inflation. However, there is no causality relationship between housing supply and housing inflation. According to the conditional frequency domain causality test results, there is causality for the permanent and mid-term from changes in the consumer interest rate to housing inflation and causality for the mid-term and temporary from changes in the exchange rate to housing inflation. Additionally, it was found that there are causality relationships between changes in the consumer interest rate and changes in the exchange rate. Research limitations/implications The first limit of the study is that only 2010M01-2020M06 months can be considered. Because the date that variables started common is 2010M01. Besides, there is a limit in the study in variables used. Many variables, both micro and macro, can be added to affect housing inflation. Originality/value Housing inflation is a remarkable issue in Turkey. There is an increase in the number of studies on the subject in recent years. For this reason, the study is trying to contribute by approaching the subject from a different angle. The most important contribution of the study is that it has not been investigated whether the determinants of housing inflation have permanent or temporary effects, which were not done in previous studies. In addition, the method used reveals how many months the effects of changes in exchange rates, consumer interest rates and housing supply on housing inflation last. Based on the findings obtained from the methods, important economic and political implications have been put forward in depth.
  • Küçük Resim
    Öğe
    Is the relationship between oil-gas prices index and economic growth in Turkey permanent?
    (Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2020) Kirca, Mustafa; Canbay, Serif; Pirali, Kerem
    Oil and gas are the most important inputs that countries use in their production process. For this reason, changes in oil-gas prices affect economic growth, which is the most important macroeconomic performance indicator. This study aims to investigate whether the relations between the oil-gas prices index and economic growth are permanent in Turkey, covering the period 1998Q1-2019Q4. For this purpose, the relationships between variables are first examined by Granger and Toda-Yamamoto causality tests with structural breaks. Then, we analyze whether the relationships between them are permanent using frequency domain causality tests based on these two tests. There is insignificant causality relationship between the variables according to Granger and the Frequency Domain Causality Test results based on this test. However, according to the results of the Toda-Yamamoto causality test with a structural break, there is a causality relationship from oil-gas prices to economic growth. According to the results of the Frequency Domain Causality Test based on this test, the permanent effect of oil-gas prices on economic growth is approximately five years.
  • Küçük Resim Yok
    Öğe
    Symmetric and asymmetric frequency-domain causality between tourism demand and exchange rates in Turkiye: a regional comparison
    (Emerald Group Publishing Ltd, 2023) Canbay, Serif; coskun, Inci Oya; Kirca, Mustafa
    PurposeThis study investigates if the causal relationships between the exchange rates and selected inbound markets' tourism demand are temporary or permanent, and compares market reactions in Turkiye.Design/methodology/approachTourism demand is examined with a regional approach, focusing on the geographical markets, namely Europe, Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) members and Asian countries, as the top inbound tourism markets, in addition to the total number of inbound tourists to Turkiye. Granger, frequency-domain causality, asymmetric Toda-Yamamoto, and asymmetric frequency-domain causality tests were employed to investigate and compare markets on exchange rate-tourism demand relationship for 2008M01-2020M02.FindingsThe results indicate that exchange rates affect European tourism demand both in the short and long run. The meaning of this Frequency Domain Causality (FDC) analysis finding shows that the exchange rate has both permanent and temporary effects on European tourists. The relationships are statistically insignificant for CIS members and Asian countries. The exchange rates also permanently affect total inbound tourism demand, but the independent variable has no short-run (temporary) effects on total demand. Asymmetric causality tests confirmed a permanent causality relationship from the positive and negative components of exchange rates to the positive and negative components of European and total tourism demand.Originality/valueThe Granger causality test provides information on the presence of a causal relation, while the FDC test, an extended version of Granger causality, enlightens the short- (temporary) and long-run (permanent) relationships and allows for analyzing the duration of the impact. In addition, asymmetric causality relationships are also investigated in the study. Besides, this study is the first in the literature to examine the relationship between tourism demand and the exchange rate regionally (continentally) for Turkiye.
  • Küçük Resim Yok
    Öğe
    Unraveling unemployment hysteresis in Nordic countries: a multifaceted analysis of age, gender and frequency differentials
    (Emerald Group Publishing Ltd, 2024) Yilanci, Veli; Kirca, Mustafa; Canbay, Serif; Saglam, Muhlis Selman
    PurposeThis study aims to test the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis for Nordic countries by considering age and gender differentials at various frequencies.Design/methodology/approachFirst, the authors test the linearity of the unemployment series and apply appropriate unit root tests based on the linearity test results. The authors use these tests for both original and wavelet-decomposed unemployment rates.FindingsThe authors' findings indicate that the results obtained from the original and decomposed series differ. While the authors find evidence of unemployment hysteresis in the six unemployment rates in the short run, they observe supportive results for hysteresis in the three unemployment rates in the long run.Originality/valueThe authors take into account different age and gender groups. Furthermore, the authors propose a testing strategy for unemployment hysteresis that considers the nonlinearity and structural breaks in unemployment rates. Finally, the authors determine whether the unemployment hysteresis is valid at various frequencies.