Yazar "Çetin, Mehmet" seçeneğine göre listele

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  • Küçük Resim
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    The change in biocomfort zones in the area of Mug?la province in near future due to the global climate change scenarios
    (Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd, 2023) Çetin, Mehmet; Şevik, Hakan; Koç, İsmail; Çetin, İlknur Zeren
    It is inevitable that the global climate change, which has important effects on the climate throughout the world, would have significant effects on the biocomfort zones. Hence, how global climate change will change the biocomfort zones should be determined and the data to be obtained should be used in urban planning projects. In the current study, SSPs 245 and SSPs 585 scenarios were taken as a basis, and the potential effects of global climate change on the biocomfort zones in Mugla province, Turkiye were investigated. Within the scope of the present study, the current status of biocomfort zones in Mugla and their possible conditions in years 2040, 2060, 2080, and 2100 were compared using DI and ETv methods. At the end of the study, it was estimated that, ac-cording DI method, 14.13% of Mugla province are in cold zone, 31.96% in cool zone, and 53.71% in comfortable zone. According to the SSPs 585 scenario, together with the increase in temperature, the cold and cool zones will totally disappear in year 2100, comfortable zones will decrease to 31.22%, and approx. 68.78% of the province will be in hot zone. According to the calculations made using ETv method, Mugla province currently consists of moderately cold zones by 2%, quite cold zones by 13.16%, slightly cold zones by 57.06%, and mild zones by 27.79%. Based on the SSPs 585 scenario for the year 2100, it is projected that Mugla will consist of slightly cool zones by 1.41%, mild zones by 14.42%, and comfortable zones by 68.06%, besides warm zones by 16.11% which are not present at this moment. This finding suggests that especially the cooling costs will increase and the air-conditioning systems to be used will negatively affect the global climate change through the energy consumption and the gases used.
  • Küçük Resim
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    Identifying the suitable habitats for Anatolian boxwood (Buxus sempervirens L.) for the future regarding the climate change
    (Springer Wien, 2022) Varol, Tuğrul; Cantürk, Uğur; Çetin, Mehmet; Özel, Halil Barış; Şevik, Hakan; Çetin, İlknur Zeren
    Distribution of tree species is a function of climatic (such as temperature and precipitation) and topographic (such as altitude, slope, and exposure) parameters. It is thought that any change in climatic parameters would be one of the most effective factors to influence the distribution of species. The adaptation of populations would depend on the phenotypic variation, strength of selection, interspecies competition, and biotic interactions. Moreover, many ecologic and anthropogenic processes that are related with each other would affect the distance of distribution. Hence, the detailed and reliable information about the geographical distribution of species under changing climate conditions is of significant importance for various ecologic and protection practices. For this reason, the present study focused on the estimation and analysis of the potential distribution of Anatolian boxwood in different scenarios (SSPS245 and SSPS585) and the estimation and analysis of environmental factors influencing this distribution. Using the current and future (2040-2060-2080-2100) climate scenarios, the habitats that are suitable for the distribution of Anatolian boxwood in Turkey were modeled using the maximum entropy model and then mapped using ArcGIS software. In determining the potential distribution areas, 21 parameters (19 bioclimatic and 2 topographic variables) were used in 21 field-based formation points. The results showed that the most important variables affecting the distribution of species were annual mean temperature (Bio1), minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), mean temperature of the coldest quartile (Bio11), precipitation of the driest month (Bio14), precipitation of the driest quartile (Bi017), and precipitation of the warmest quartile (Bio18). According to two future climate change scenarios, the estimation models showed that there might be decreases up to 6% in Anatolian Boxwood population in years 2040-2060 and, in year 2100; the potential area of distribution will shift to north and higher altitudes in comparison to the current ones and increase by 1-4%. The human help needed for maintaining the existence of new species in the suitable distribution areas suggests the necessity of reviewing and re-designing the current forestry plans and silvicultural practices within the context of climate change.